Published February 10, 2026 · Updated June 10, 2026 · 7 min read
The short answer
Yes, for most California homes — but the value comes from a battery, not from exporting power. With high, rising utility rates and NEM 3.0, a solar-plus-battery system typically pays back in about 7–9 years and saves far more over its 25+ year life.
By Vinnie Curcie, Founder & CEO · Reviewed by Ashton Curcie, Chief Operating Officer
Why solar still makes sense here
California has some of the highest electricity prices in the country, and rates keep climbing. Generating and storing your own power is a hedge against decades of increases. The question isn't really 'does solar work' — it's 'is the system designed for how you're billed in 2026.'
NEM 3.0 changed the answer
Solar-only systems used to earn generous export credits. Under NEM 3.0 those credits dropped roughly 75%, so a panels-only system pays back slowly. Add a battery and the math flips: you self-consume your solar during the expensive evening peak and stop buying $0.40–0.55/kWh grid power.
What payback looks like
With a correctly sized solar-plus-battery system, most California homeowners see payback in roughly 7–9 years, then a decade-plus of low bills on a system warrantied for 25+ years. Owned systems also add home value — and with the property-tax exclusion, without raising your taxes. You can get your home's exact numbers with a free, no-obligation estimate.
Payback by utility: SCE vs SDG&E vs PG&E
Where you live changes the math, because payback is driven by the grid rate you avoid paying. The method is simple and transparent: payback ≈ net system cost ÷ first-year bill savings, and first-year savings scale with your utility's rates and how much expensive 4–9 PM peak power your battery lets you skip. Using each utility's own published rate figures, here's how the big three compare within the typical 7–9 year band.
| Utility | Published residential rate | What it means for payback |
|---|---|---|
| SDG&E | ≈45.7¢/kWh bundled average, per SDG&E's January 2026 rate change alert | The highest rates of the three — savings accrue fastest, so payback tends toward the fast end of the 7–9 year band |
| SCE | ≈34.5¢/kWh system average, per SCE's rate advisory (June 1, 2026) | Middle of the band for a right-sized solar-plus-battery system |
| PG&E | PG&E announced a ~5% residential rate decrease effective Jan 1, 2026 — its fourth in two years — but rates remain among the nation's highest | Comparable to SCE; your exact position depends on your rate plan and usage |
Assumptions, stated plainly: payback ≈ net system cost ÷ first-year bill savings; a solar-plus-battery system sized to your usage under NEM 3.0; rates as published by each utility at the dates cited; utility rates have historically escalated roughly 5% per year. These are estimates from public rate schedules, not guarantees — your bill, rate plan, and design set the real number.
A rule of thumb: look at your monthly bill
If you want a five-second gut check before any modeling, use your electric bill. As a rule of thumb: if your average monthly bill is around $150 or more, a right-sized solar-plus-battery system usually pencils comfortably inside that 7–9 year band, because you have enough expensive usage to offset. Somewhere under about $100 a month, the case gets thinner and deserves a harder look before you sign anything. It's a heuristic, not a verdict — roof, shading, and rate plan all move it.
Two honest paths from there: get a real estimate for your address, and if the up-front cost is the obstacle rather than the math, our no-credit-check prepaid solar plan captures the ~30% §48E federal value through the financier with nothing to file on your taxes.
FAQ
Usually not the best value under NEM 3.0 — export credits are low, so payback is slow. A battery lets you use your own solar during peak hours, which is where the savings now come from.
Incentives and rates change. This page is kept current — but always confirm specifics for your home.
Get a free, honest estimate →